Tuesday, May 6, 2008

The Bush Factor

Coming in the fall is going to be an epic battle of name-calling and calling-out. McCain will face an embroiled Democrat and the baggage of the Bush administration when voters are deciding who to support.

But will the legacy of the 43rd President of the United States, George Walker Bush, hurt him? It would be an easy answer to say yes, but you must look at the statistics of the states.

The biggest issue about President Bush is the War in Iraq. Regardless of what you may think of the progress or lack thereof being made in the foreign nation, the Republican Party is at a disadvantage when this is brought up for debate. For McCain, this could mean bad news. But only in some areas. In the entire nation, people view the war as having little positive impact as reflected in a 31 percent approval rating in March 2008. But in Virginia, a predominantly conservative and Southern state, the people of the Commonwealth view the war as a winning cause for us with a 57 percent approval rating and that over the next six months 40 percent believe that the war will improve. It is also interesting to note that 69 percent of Virginians view the U.S.'s environment as fair and decent as opposed to the 21 percent that said it was unfair and discriminatory. This shows the voter base of Virginia (Rasmussen Reports).

John McCain may not be viewed as Denis Kucinich may, an elve for peace, but he has considerable support in the areas that have traditionally voted Red. He maintains big leads over Obama and Clinton in Virginia with 58% to 36% Clinton and 52% to 41% Obama (March 26, 2008).

If McCain can hold onto former Republican strongholds and gain some of the Blue, he has a decent chance of winning the Big American Fiasco: The 2008 Presidential Election.

3 comments:

Jake Ellis said...

A state that has gone red for the past 40 years will probably go red again. No duh. How does "The Bush Factor" work for McCain in purple states.

Ben said...

But Jake, Virginia is slowly turning blue. You can see this after the election of two popular Democratic governors, the unseating of the well-liked Republican Senator George Allen for Jim Webb, and the near loss of Bob McDonnell to Creigh Deeds for Attorney General in the last election.

The whole purpose of this article is to say that Bush is less of an influence than people perceive him to be. If it does become pertinent, however, then McCain could be in some serious trouble.

Jake Ellis said...

Republicans across the country are having hard times getting elected, even in some consistently red states like Louisiana. The fact that many polls had it 60-40% for the Democrats a few months ago shows Bush's unpopularity. Luckily, the Republicans nominated the most liked Republican in Congress.